Monta have it all, except for a team right now.
Monta Ellis went through a rough patch at the end of last year, and the Mavs decided to gently push him towards taking his player option. The Dallas Mavericks and Monta Ellis have parted ways, and now he is an unrestricted free agent. Rumors, thanks to Chris Broussard, have swirled about the Pacers being interested in the service of Ellis.
Monta should be expecting about a $10 million a year contract I would guess, most of our cap space. That’s a pretty large investment when there is such a large hole at power forward. So the question is: is Monta worth it?
Background
Monta came straight out of high school, but he wasn’t a LeBron or Tyson Chandler. He was one of those picks that made the NBA change the eligibility rule. Monta Ellis fell to the Warriors in the 2nd round with the 40th pick, where they snatched the young combo guard.
Ellis played a fairly non-descript first season, starting three games and scoring less than seven points per game. After 05-06, Ellis never looked back. He broke out onto the scene, grabbing the Most Improved Player award and being a part of the “We Believe” Warriors team that upset the 1 seed Dallas Mavericks in the first round. Ellis played four more full seasons in Golden State, expanding his game out to the 3 point line and averaging 22.7 points per game.
In 2011-2012, with Steph Curry already looking like a future cornerstone of the franchise, Ellis was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks for Andrew Bogut. While this trade was major in building the current champions, Ellis went to a team desperately trying to stay relevant in Wisconsin. Teaming up with Brandon Jennings, the Bucks floundered around the middle of the conference, finishing 9th in 2012 and 8th in 2013, where they were easily swept by the Miami Heat.
After becoming a free agent, Ellis signed in Dallas, where he had one of his most efficient seasons in 2013-14 and played in the playoffs for the third time of his career. For anyone who was paying attention last year, Ellis had an odd season thanks to roster changes and the general instability of the Mavericks organization. Let’s get more into his 2014-15 season right now.
Offense
What is clear from Monta’s shotchart: he’s really good in the paint. While he had the reputation of a loose cannon in his early years, he clearly knew where his best spots were in 14-15. After under the basket shots, most of his shots came from the center-right midrange, where he was incredibly accurate. A huge benefit of older Monta is his highly increased basketball IQ. He always had talent, but now he’s matching it with intellect.
So how did he get these shots? Well, driving. Ellis was 22nd in the league in team PPG on drives as well as top 50 in FG% on drives (for players who had 3 or more drives per game). With about eight drive per game, Ellis likes to go to the hoop, a skill that is not really prevalent on this current Pacers team.
Game 4 of the Mavs-Rockets playoff series was one of Ellis’s best performances of last year, and of course it showed what a terror he can still be when he has the ball. Take this fast break for instance.
No hesitation from Ellis, just attacking the rim, getting through defenders, and finishing with a sweet layup. This kind of aggressive attitude mixed with skill is something the Pacers need to match with George Hill, a solid facilitator who can get to the hoop at times but is also a deadly shooter.
Another move in Ellis’s drive arsenal is a nice finger roll, that he uses for his 30th and 31st points in Game 4 here:
What stands out in all Ellis drive highlights is his quick first step towards the basket. No matter where he is in the halfcourt, he can take a step towards the hoop and blow by the defender.
Driving isn’t his only offensive move though. Ellis loves to pull up and shoot, one of 17 players to shoot 7 or more pull up shots per game. Here’s an example of Ellis taking advantage of a good matchup and getting open from 20 to drain the pullup.
Ellis has a keen sense of where openings on the floor are, which is how he is able to get such good shots. While his pullup eFG% is middle of the road for his volume, he still has the skill to get open. Playing next to Paul George and George Hill instead of Chandler Parsons and Rajon Rondo should be beneficial to his shot, to say the least.
Ellis usually has the ball in his hands, so his off ball game needs work. He only took about three catch & shoot shots per game, about the same number that Jameer Nelson took in his time as a Maverick. If the Pacers do sign Ellis, expect him to be the primary ball handler when he is in, regardless of Paul George and George Hill.
Ellis isn’t the best passer in the league, averaging about 8 assist opportunities per game in 2014-2015. This number is comparable with other more shooting-oriented guards, such as Victor Oladipo and Goran Dragic. Hopefully, he will be able to get his assist numbers up with George Hill and Paul George waiting at the 3 point line for a kick out.
Other fun situational stats for Ellis: 2nd most pick and roll ball handler possessions in the regular season; T35th in points per possession from P&R ball handling (100+ possessions) with Goran Dragic and Jeremy Lin, among others.
Defense
Now, Ellis isn’t winning any awards for his defense. However, I do not think it would be a huge problem in Indiana with George Hill and Paul George covering the better players. Ellis was slightly above average against the pick & roll last year, giving up .72 points per possession. He also only gave up .94 points per possession in isolation, which was top 25% in the league. Hide him on the worst perimeter player, and he will do more than fine.
I don’t want to dwell too long on the defense, because I do not believe it is very important with Monta. He will help out the defense by taking some offensive pressure off of Paul George and George Hill.
Would I sign him?
I mean, yeah. I’ve made it pretty clear above that I like what he can do on offense. I wouldn’t hate to see him as the 6th man either, if the team feels like Paul George needs to be a big time offensive player. Ellis can play the 1 or 2, so he adds to the flexibility that I believe Bird and company are aiming for.
Can the Pacers sign him?
Well, they’ve made it to the interview stage. I am very worried about Sacramento, something that hasn’t been said since Chris Webber and Mike Bibby were on the court. After the recent news that they’ve dumped the contracts of Carl Landry and Jason Thompson, they have space for multiple big free agents and have a huge hole at shooting guard. If the Pacers let Ellis leave Indianapolis without signing a contract, I don’t think they will get him back.
Pacers Stacked 